Roughly 15% of every campaign you send lands in spam. Across providers, across industries, across list sizes. About one in seven.
Your dashboard will say 99% delivered and nobody in your business will ever know that 15% went to spam!
That's the ordinary state of the channel in 2026.
The verdict
It's been the hardest year I can remember; the filters got stricter, yes. But what actually changed is that the tolerance disappeared.
For years you could run a sloppy list, half-configured authentication and a habit of mailing everyone, and the providers absorbed it.
Enforcement is now mechanical.
The same behaviour that was quietly tolerated in 2022 gets you rejected in 2026.
So most of the emergencies I get called into aren't new problems.
They're old problems that finally arrived, which is a much less comforting explanation than blaming Gmail.
Three gates closed this year:
→ Gmail moved from soft deferrals to hard rejections. Non-compliant bulk mail gets permanently refused now.
→ Microsoft won't accept a monitoring-only DMARC policy
→ Email engagement is plummeting for lots of businesses
And B2B has taken the worst of it. Microsoft hosts most corporate mail and Microsoft is now the hardest inbox to reach
What's coming in 2027
→ The baseline gets worse. I expect 15% to become 17–25%. More volume, more AI mail, faster complaint reflexes, stricter filtering.
→ AI-written email gets filtered - for a reason people will misdiagnose. The filters aren't detecting AI. Humans are recognising the patterns, disengaging, and the filters respond to the disengagement. The punishment is for being boring.
→ Warm-up tools become obsolete. Filters are too good at spotting the patterns they create (I do love a warm up but it's becoming risky if you user the wrong tools)
→ Cold email keeps dying. Finished by 2030
→ The deliverability market booms and gets noisier. More tools, more courses, more people claiming capability they don't have.