Segmentation: Where (and When) It Actually Matters

The heresy: classic “segmentation” is overrated

There’s a loud myth online that you must hyper-segment to get results.

Cue teams slicing lists into confetti, writing 10 micro-variations of the same message… and moving the needle by 0.0000001%. 

The truth is that segmentation is only as good as its return on impact.

If your effort doesn’t materially improve outcomes, revenue, pipeline movement, retention, referrals, time-to-first action or whatever the goal is then it’s just busywork (trust me I know, I have failed miserably many times before). 

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Email impact rarely shows up meaningfully campaign-by-campaign. It shows up over time. You’ll have spikes (I sold ~20 masterclass tickets off one email which was super duper amazing), but what matters is the cumulative lift, how email consistently contributes to the goal across months, quarters, years! 

So, start here: If you can’t explain how detailed segmentation choice will change behaviour (not just open rates), don’t do it and don't spend time on it. 

Flip the lens: from “who to include” to “who to exclude”

Most teams start segmentation by deciding who should get the email. I start with who definitely shouldn’t.

Why? Because relevance is as much about avoiding misalignment as it is about precision targeting. The fastest way to protect reputation, reduce complaints, and keep trust is to prune.

Exclusion-first checklist (build these as saved filters):

• Recent purchasers within X days of the delivery window
• Open support/complaint tickets
• Recently unsubscribed/complained
• Just had a call with sales - positive/negative outcome 
• Downloaded a lead magnet about X so do not send them the next send about Y
• Current customers for product A when the offer is for product A acquisition
• Sales-engaged accounts at late stage (don’t undercut your own reps)
• Recently hit with too many sends (cadence guardrail)
• Obvious context clashes (e.g., billing overdue)

This alone will clean up 50% of your “segmentation problems.”

Segmentation ≠ slicing personas forever - it’s reading signals

Think less “demographic buckets,” more journey indicators and last touch.

B2C signal examples

• Abandoned basket → far down the funnel; they need clarity/assurance, not a generic “welcome.”
• Signed up for 10% off, no browse → early stage; nurture with orientation and light value, not urgency.
• Product page depth (3+ views) → interest spike; send comparison guides, social proof, FAQs.
  

B2B signal examples

• Newsletter signup for learning → early; problem/education-led content, not sales.
• Attended webinar on Topic X → solution-aware; follow with more value adds on that topic, case studies, how to solve x problem content,  soft CTAs.
• Pricing page visit from target account → buying signals; coordinate with sales and use assistive enablement.
  

Rule: your “segment” is simply the signal + stage + exclusions. That’s it.

Content alignment before audience selection (always)

Most teams do this backwards: “We need sales, what can we send, and to how many?”

Flip that shizzle please!!

Start with the highest-impact audience + moment, then write the email for that context.

If the message makes sense to a human in that moment, you’ve done the segmentation work already.

Two tests I use:

1. The Tipsy Grandam Test: would a slightly tipsy Grandma or totally drunk one instantly understand why they got this email? If not, your context is off.
2. Read-the-Room Test: Does this message respect the last interaction and likely headspace? If they just bought, do not push another offer. If they opened a complaint, do not send your “Biggest Sale Ever!” blast.

When not to segment (very important) 

You don’t have to slice everything into tiny pots. There are times when one well-framed message with clear exclusions is smarter:

• Brand/awareness plays (email as a billboard): subject + preheader + sender name do visibility work, even if unopened.
• Market news or critical updates (time-sensitive, high relevance across your base).
• Persona-agnostic value (e.g., “How to claim your warranty”, “We’re changing our billing descriptor”).

Just apply exclusions and cadence limits, and ship.

When segmentation is worth it

• High value or high risk journeys (onboarding, activation, renewals, churn saves)
• Complex buying committees (B2B roles require different enablement)
• Clear signal deltas (e.g., cart abandon vs. ebook download)
• Regulatory or duty of care contexts (finance, healthcare)

If the decision drives different objections, timing, or proof needs, segment.

Your “Return on Impact” (RoI) model for segmentation

A simple, practical way to decide:

Expected Impact Score = Reach × Relevance × Readiness – Risk

• Reach: size of the addressable audience post-exclusions (0–5)
• Relevance: strength of the signal–message match (0–5)
• Readiness: how close they are to the action you want (0–5)
• Risk: deliverability or brand risk from sending this (complaints, misalignment, cannibalising sales) (0–5)

Prioritise segments with a higher score. If the score’s low, don’t create a bespoke variant, fold them into a broader send with exclusions.

The foundations still rule (your glass ceiling)

If your systems, strategy, and data (PPPP™ Pillars) are messy, segmentation becomes theatre.

• Systems: If you’re exporting/importing weekly, you’ll never scale journey-led sending. Connect your stack or accept the ceiling.
  

• Strategy: If email is treated as “cheap reach,” you’ll forever over-send and under-align. Agree the role email plays (awareness, enablement, retention, sales assist).
  

• Data: If you’re collecting notes no one can use, you can’t segment. Define a data collection strategy (what, why, where, when). Stop hoarding; start curating.
  
  

Practical: build an exclusion-first operating system

Stand up these assets in your CRM/ESP so segmentation becomes fast and sane.

1. Baseline “Always-on” Exclusions (saved segments)
   • Purchasers ≤ X days (configurable by product/service
   • Open complaints/ticket
   • Sequence fatigue (e.g., ≥ N sends in M days)
   • Recent event registrants vs promo for the same event
   • Current customers for acquisition offers
   • Billing issues/credit hold
   • In 'X' Stage of the pipeline or done 'X' actions
2. Journey Signals (fields/tags to capture)
   • B2C: last product viewed, category affinity, price band, basket value, delivery postcode, channel of signup (site pop-up, checkout, referral), returns history.
   • B2B: role/seniority, industry, ICP fit, content topic interest, webinar/topic attendance, sales stage, last meeting date, target account flag.
3. Cadence Guardrails
   
   • Global max sends per person per rolling window
   • Journey overrides (onboarding/critical service messages ignore caps)
   • Cool-off after negative signals (complaint, refund)
     
4. Message Templates by Stage (write once, reuse)
   • Orientation (new joiners: what to expect, how to customise preferences)
   • Education (problem-led value; proof & playbooks)
   • Enablement (comparisons, ROI, case studies, buyer cheat-sheets)
   • Action (time-bound offers, booking nudges
   • Care/Retention (how to get more value, renewal prep, “we’ve got your back” moments)
     

B2C & B2B: concrete patterns

B2C: retail/consumer brand

• Signal: abandoned basket, £120 value, new customer
• Exclusions: purchase in last X days; open ticket; already received X nudges

• Message: reassurance (delivery, returns, reviews), small nudge, soft incentive if margin allows

• Follow-up: if still inactive, switch to education (“how to choose the right X”), then stop and drop into regular cadence
  
  

B2B: services/SaaS

• Signal: attended “How to Fix Deliverability” webinar

• Exclusions: already in late-stage opp; open CS ticket; unsubscribed education

• Message: send the deck + a 3-step checklist + one relevant case study; optional “hit reply with your #1 blocker”

• Follow-up: if reply/click, branch to mini-audit offer; if not, place in topic-led nurture with value, not pitch
  

Data you actually need (example)

If a field doesn’t change a decision or a message, don’t collect it.

Where to start in the next 14 days

• Map reality. Grab sales, service, marketing. Whiteboard the journey and all comms already going out. You will find clashes.

• Ship exclusions. Build the 6–8 baseline exclusion filters and start using them on every send.

• Define signals. Pick 5–7 journey signals to capture consistently. Update forms and processes.

• Set cadence rules. Choose your global caps and exceptions; publish them.
• Pick one high-impact moment. Improve just one journey with a signal-led sequence (e.g., onboarding or cart recovery).
• Measure RoI over time. Track 90-day impact (pipeline velocity, repeat purchase rate, time-to-first action), not just next Tuesday’s CTR.
  

Final thoughts: segmentation is a means, not the mission

Stop worshipping the tactic. Start serving the moment.

Segmentation, done right, is simply the discipline of reading signals, excluding misfits, and aligning a message to a journey.

It’s not about creating ten tiny sends to say you “did segmentation.”

It’s about impact over time, protecting reputation, moving people forward, and treating inboxes (and humans) with respect.

Fix your foundations, set your exclusions, follow the signals… then send the right thing.

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